2024 small-scale technology percentage
The 2024 small-scale technology percentage is 21.26%.
Under the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, liable entities source and surrender small-scale technology certificates (STCs) to meet scheme obligations.
The small-scale technology percentage (STP) helps calculate the amount of STCs liable entities surrender each year. This amount should equal the predicted amount of STCs created. It also accounts for previous under or over-creations.
Learn about how the STP impacts the carbon market by reading our Quarterly Carbon Market Reports.
Setting the small-scale technology percentage
Each year, we recommend a percentage to the Minister for Climate Change and Energy. We use data or estimates for matters the minister must consider. These matters are:
- estimated STC creations for the year
- estimated relevant acquisitions of electricity for the year
- the cumulative adjustment
- estimated exemptions.
The Minister may also consider other matters when determining the STP.
The STP must be set by 31 March each year, otherwise a default percentage is used.
Estimated STC creations
The STC creation estimate is the average of our consultants' forecasts. For 2024, the estimated number of STC creations is 33.6 million.
We calculated this figure using 2023 data before 31 October and an estimate of creations for the rest of the year.
Learn more about our consultants' forecast in the STP modelling reports.
Estimated relevant acquisitions of electricity
A relevant acquisition of electricity is when a liable entity buys wholesale electricity. We estimate based on the sum of acquisitions reported by liable entities 2 years before the setting year. We round the figure to the nearest 100,000 megawatt hours (MWh).
We use data that has completed compliance and assessment activities and is unlikely to change. This helps assume electricity demand will remain relatively stable.
Under or over-estimating has a minor impact on the STP calculation. Estimated relevant acquisitions of electricity in 2022, used in the 2024 STP calculation, are 214,000,000 MWh.
Cumulative adjustment
The cumulative adjustment accounts for over or under supply of STCs in previous years. We subtract the sum of all STCs surrendered from the sum of all STCs created. We add this figure to the STC creations estimate.
In 2023, STC creations were significantly higher than required surrenders. This means our 2024 STP cumulative adjustment is 4,328,821 STCs.
In the cumulative adjustment, we also consider the:
- 659,564 STCs changed to large-scale generation certificates
- 547,701 STCs flagged as voluntarily surrendered in the REC Registry.
Estimated exemptions
Businesses receive exemption certificates for electricity used in emissions-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) activities. They exchange these certificates with their electricity retailer (liable entity) to reduce electricity costs. The liable entity surrenders the exemption certificates to reduce its scheme responsibility.
We estimate the EITE exemptions and minus the amount from the relevant acquisitions estimate each year. Like relevant acquisitions, we use data from 2 years before the setting year.
Estimated exemptions for 2022, used in the 2024 STP calculation, are 35,600,000 MWh.
STP formula
The formula of matters to consider when setting the STP is:
$|STP = ((STC Creation Estimate + Cumulative Adjustment)/(Relevant Acquisitions – Exemptions)) x 100|$
When calculating the STP, 1 MWh of electricity is equivalent to one STC.
The 2024 STP calculation is:
$|STP 2024 = ((33,600,000 + 4,328,821)/(214,000,000 – 35,600,000)) x 100 = 21.26%|$
Non-binding small-scale technology percentage
We must publish non-binding STPs for 2 years following the setting year. This gives us an idea of what the STP could be in those years. This is not accurate when there is a large difference between STC creations and STC estimates. Non-binding estimates are a general guide only.
These estimates don't bind us or affect a liable entity's liability.
As is for STP, STC creations are the average of consultants' forecasts:
- 28.8 million STCs for 2025
- 23.9 million STCs for 2026.
Formula
STP 2025 Non-binding
Formula = $|(Estimated STC creations for 2025/(Estimated relevant acquisitions – Estimated exemptions)) x 100|$
Example = $|(28,800,000/(214,000,000 – 35,600,000)) x 100 = 16.14%|$
STP 2026 Non-binding
Formula = $|(Estimated STC creations for 2026/(Estimated relevant acquisitions – Estimated exemptions)) x 100|$
Example = $|(23,900,000/(214,000,000 – 35,600,000)) x 100 = 13.39%|$